Finding leverage points for scaling biomethane production in the Netherlands: a system dynamics approach
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2025-07-07
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en
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This research investigates how biomethane producers in the Netherlands can scale production to close the gap with the national target of 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2030. Despite biomethanes strategic role in the energy transition, current production remains significantly below target due to a mix of operational, economic, and environmental barriers. The objective of this study is to identify and prioritize leverage points that can support long-term scalability. To achieve this a mixed-method approach was employed, consisting of a narrative literature review, semi-structured interviews with 14 Dutch biomethane producers, and a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). A stock and flow diagram (SFD) was developed to capture key system structures and systemic bottlenecks. The analysis identified six leverage points, with policy clarity on certification schemes, on-site operational flexibility, and carbon intensity (CI) reduction practices receiving the highest stakeholder endorsement. Results reveal that systemic barriers, such as unclear certification rules and infrastructure constraints, remain a critical constraint. The findings underscore the need for integrated system thinking in policy and investment decisions and provide a practical framework for integrating system dynamics with participatory decision-making, offering theoretical and methodological advancements for renewable energy transition planning in complex socio-technical systems.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen