The 2023 Nagorno-Karabach war: how a frozen conflict burst into flames
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2024-07-12
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en
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This study examines why the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalated in September 2023, with the decision
of Azerbaijan to intervene militarily. By using a single case study and process tracing methodology, this
research investigates the interplay between systemic and domestic factors that influenced this decision.
Neorealism and neoclassical realism serve as the theoretical frameworks for this analysis. The study
finds that regional instability, particularly the shifts in power dynamics, influenced by weakened Russian
presence and enhanced Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, created a strategic opportunity for Azerbaijan to
assert control over Nagorno-Karabakh. This supports the neorealist theory that focuses on the systemic
factors. At the same time, President Ilham Aliyev’s decisive and task-oriented leadership style, revealed
through Leadership Trait Analysis, was crucial in translating these systemic pressures into military
action. This aligns with neoclassical realism. The findings show that both systemic and domestic factors
played important roles in shaping Azerbaijan’s actions. This research helps to explain how different
factors drive state behavior in conflicts and highlights the critical role of leadership in making foreign
policy decisions.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen