Climate proof long-term planning. Adaptation pathways for polder areas: the way to deal with climate change uncertainties?
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2021-07-10
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en
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Abstract
The climate is changing and since the Netherlands is a vulnerable country for these changes, action
must be taken. However, the question is when and which actions the Netherlands need to take to
protect itself against the climate change effects. Polders are particularly vulnerable to the effects because they are low in elevation and have high economic value. Climate scenarios suggest a changing climate with different extremes. These scenarios have some range of uncertainty, does the world get 1,5°C or 5°C temperature rise? We know it will rise, but we do not know how fast and to which degree. To make decisions overtime under uncertain situations, the Dynamic Adaptive Policy
Pathways (DAPP) is useful. This approach consists of pathways to the future which help to deal with uncertainties within the different scenarios. The objective of this research is to design pathways for the future development of polders and to see if there is a typology of polder areas based on the different pathways and tipping points. Moreover, the DAPP approach need to be improved on local-scale and analyse if it is possible to use the approach by help of qualitative methods. Therefore, three cases were chosen: Kolken-Noord, Haarlemmermeerpolder and Dirkslandpolder.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen