What induces Changes in Beliefs? And to what Extent are Beliefs and Actions aligned? An Out-of-sample-test with Financial Professionals and Students
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2021-07-07
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en
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We use experimental market data that applies constant fundamentals and allows for short-sales to analyze the effect of price and trend impulses on changes in price forecasts, and the relationship between price forecasts and market behavior. We prove that the Double-Adaptive-Expectations-model of Holt et al. (2017, p. 81) has an edge over more parsimonious versions of it, and support that indeed both price and trend impulses are highly significant and positive predictors of changes in forecasts. However, financial professionals appear to be slightly less inclined to incorporate observed price impulses into their forecast adaptations. Despite using a different market design, we further support the findings of Carlé et al. (2019): more optimistic traders have higher net purchases, hold more assets and submit higher bids/asks as less optimistic ones. Furthermore, some of the effects appear to be stronger for financial professionals as opposed to students. Neither treatments, nor risk attitudes affect the observed relationship.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen