Predicting Depression with Bayesian Nonparametric Models

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2022-08-01

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en

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The network model approach is a fairly recent paradigm for modeling psychopathological conditions like Major Depressive Disorder. This approach models the disorders as an interconnected network of symptoms. The connections in such a network are usually assumed to be static, however, there are reasons to disregard this assumption. In this project, we try to apply a Bayesian nonparametric method called the Generalized Wishart Process (GWP) to model the symptom connections in the form of a dynamic covariance matrix. We want to investigate whether this method is capable of learning such dynamic network structures and whether adding the dynamics helps the model to make better predictions. The GWP was able to learn the dynamic network structures, although it was worse at it than the parametric baseline with a dynamic covariance. The GWP was also worse at predicting future symptom values than another Bayesian nonparametric model that used static covariance. Nevertheless, it showed promising results in terms of interpretability as compared to the baseline, a property valuable in model prediction.

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Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen