US Monetary Policy and Capital Flow to Equity, Bond, and Commodities ETFs
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2023-07-14
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en
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This thesis seeks answer to the question of whether US monetary policy matters for capital flows to ETFs listed in the US. Under a structural vector autoregression framework, impulse response functions are used to investigate how key indicators such as federal reserve rate, M2 money supply and inflation impact flows into three ETF sectors: equity, debt, and commodities. Upon controlling for various macroeconomic factors, including unemployment, strength of the US Dollar, economic performance, consumer sentiment, credit risk, and market uncertainty, the empirical analyses found a lack of significant relationships. This suggests that investment flows to key ETF sectors are unaffected by monetary policy considerations. This could be indicative of the increasingly complex nature of the investment environment and market fragmentation. Future works could include factors like corporate financial variables, global economic indicators, risk management strategies, and investors' policy expectations/uncertainties to augment/extend our models to capture the drivers of ETF flows. Furthermore, our results may be due to non-linearity issues, which future modelling should investigate further.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen