Evaluating the Dutch National Risk Assessment: Drawing lessons from a comparison with European Counterparts

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Several European and non-European countries have conducted a national risk assessment. Generally speaking, these assessments present an overview of the different risk that can potentially threaten the functioning of the state as well as society and compare them in terms of both likelihood and expected consequences. This research focusses on the 2016 Dutch National Risk Assesment (Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel). The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an evaluation of the Dutch assessment with the aim of generating recommendations for the next edition in 2020. It does so by assessing and comparing the underlying assumptions used in its production with those found in its Norwegian, Polish, Swedish and Swiss counterparts. The analysis is conducted from the perspective of a theory-based normative framework and focusses on three specific points: whether a comprehensive view on national security is adopted, how the general concept of risk has been approached and, finally, if and how the behaviour of citizens in the face of risk and disaster has been taken into account. The research makes use of the CMO (Context-Mechanism-Outcome) model of evaluation in structuring the analysis.
Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen