Breaking the habit in risk analysis : Thinking through risks of foreign military interventions

Abstract

This thesis is a study into the conceptual development of risk of foreign military interventions and subsequently into the development of a risk analysis framework for foreign military intervention that is sensitive to prevailing complex military operational areas and interventions. Here, risk is not reserved to interventionist military actors and their mission alone but refers also to associated stakeholders and their activities in various domains. At the same time, foreign military intervention is not limited to large-scale, hostile and coercive actions. Accordingly, the thesis demonstrates the versatility of both foreign military intervention and risk as concepts. In the end, the risks analysis framework shows that any foreign military intervention always involves some kind of balancing act between what an interventionist state desires, what military resources it has available and the risks it estimates to encounter when putting the intended intervention into practice.