Hunting Where the Ducks Are? An Analysis of Determinants of Trump Voting in the 2016 Presidential Election
| dc.contributor.advisor | Ham van, c | |
| dc.contributor.author | Meijers, Cas | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-07-05 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This thesis examines the factors influencing the odds of voting for Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election through logistic regression analysis using SPSS. The study analyzes a comprehensive set of variables, including socio-structural factors (age, income level, gender, religion, race, educational background, marital status, and employment status), party identification, evaluation of economic performance, ideological congruence and policy positions, and evaluations of Trump’s personal characteristics. The analysis relies on data from the American National Election Survey (ANES). The results indicate several key findings. Surprisingly, black respondents were more likely to vote for Trump. The inclusion of party identification dramatically increased the model's explanatory power, highlighting partisan loyalty as a critical determinant of voting behavior. Additionally, ideological alignment and policy agreement with Trump further enhanced the predictive accuracy. Some evaluations of Trump's characteristics also significantly influenced voter support whereas others did not. The study underscores the multifaceted nature of electoral decisions, emphasizing the primacy of party identification and the significant roles of socio-structural political, and attitudinal factors. These findings contribute to the understanding of voter behavior and offer practical insights for political campaigns and electoral analysis. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://theses.ubn.ru.nl/handle/123456789/18019 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.thesis.faculty | Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen | |
| dc.thesis.specialisation | specialisations::Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen::Master Political Science::Comparative Politics | |
| dc.thesis.studyprogramme | studyprogrammes::Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen::Master Political Science | |
| dc.thesis.type | Master | |
| dc.title | Hunting Where the Ducks Are? An Analysis of Determinants of Trump Voting in the 2016 Presidential Election |
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