Addressing the future without foresight : An overview of Dutch defense policy in response to changing security perceptions since 1989
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2008
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en
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Abstract
This study focuses on the changing security perceptions since the end of the Cold War and the related role of the
Dutch armed forces in this process. Because the defence organization is a frequently used policy instrument of
Dutch politics in shaping foreign policy, the structure and concepts within this organization are specifically subject
to certain perceptions of threats in the Netherlands and the rest of the world. This issue has recently been revived
with a renewed discussion on the future of the Dutch armed forces. Therefore, the main question of this study is:
How have the Dutch armed forces responded to changing security environments?
The answer to this question has been divided into three subquestions, of which the first question focuses
on finding the specific actors and developments in national and international politics and affairs which have
influenced Dutch defense policy since the end of the Cold War. It appears that the institutional framework in
which the Dutch armed forces operate, has not dramatically changed since 1989. The second subquestion deals
with the identification of current threats and threat perceptions which could possibly influence Dutch defence
policy in the next two decades. The results show that the Dutch armed forces will have to operate in a constantly
changing security environment, in which a great diversity of threats will continue to influence ideas on security.
The third subquestion deals with the description of specific policy measures which have been taken up by the
Dutch Ministry of Defence in order to cope with this continuously changing security perception. The overarching
policy change comes from the adaptation of the 'expeditionary warfare'-concept, which entails a highly mobile
and adaptable armed forces apparatus, supported by flexible supply-chains in logistics, material planning
procedures, as well as new force planning and communication techniques.
In sum, it can be concluded that the Dutch armed forces have responded to changing security
perceptions with a thorough reform of funds, assets and manpower from an organization ready to stop a full scale
Russian invasion to a small-scale, high tech, well trained and mobile force capable of addressing a great diversity
of threats around the world. However, the question remains whether this reform is the most effective way in
alleviating the identified threats.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen