The effects of nitrogen policies in the Netherlands on Dutch meat and dairy prices A System Dynamics study of the dairy farm industry

Abstract

The Netherlands is currently experiencing a nitrogen crisis. Due to the biodiversity strategy 2030 presented by the European parliament in May 2020 to preserve 30% of Europe’s natural areas, the Netherlands must cut back their nitrogen deposition. To do so policies have been made in several areas, amongst which, the agricultural industry. This research uses a System Dynamics approach to investigate the effects of these policies on the meat and dairy prices. The policies that were used in this research would lead to less livestock, lower crude protein content in cow feed, and increased grazing hours. After modelling the structure of the dairy farm industry, the model was quantified to be able to compare alternatives. The alternatives were in this case a situation with, and without the policies. Subsequently the model was tested for its validity and afterwards conclusions were drawn from the analysis.