Future uncertainties slot capacity at Airport Coordination Netherlands

Abstract

Multi-actor decision-making under uncertainty is rather complex and uncertain, as there are many actors involved, with uncertainties due to interdependencies, consequences of action and various strategies among actors involved. This article explores future scenarios based on uncertainties regarding flight capacity in the Netherlands, and identified the potential actor’s strategic behaviour in each scenario. Thereafter, a game theoretical perspective was taken to match the strategies of actors to game concept strategies, to potentially help actors within a system to anticipate on strategies played within multi-actor decision-making under uncertainty. Existing literature on game theoretical models or game theory often simplify the situation to one game, whereas this research identified multiple game concepts within different scenarios. The contribution is a successful approach to complex decision-making by the identification of actor’s strategic behaviour in the game concepts, within each scenario. It also contributed to the field of multi-actor decision-making under uncertainty and strategic behaviour by combining scenario development with a game theoretical perspective. The paper ends with a practical recommendation, enabling actors to anticipate on strategies of other actors within each scenario, in order to prepare them for the future.