Putin’s strategic calculus: analyzing Russia’s foreign policy during the second Nagorno-Karabach war (2020)

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2024-07-12

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en

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This thesis examines Russia’s foreign policy during the second Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020) through the lens of balance of power theory and neoclassical realism. By analyzing Russia’s strategic decisions, the study aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how both systemic and domestic factors influence state behavior in conflict scenarios. The research highlights Russia’s delicate balancing act between maintaining its historical alliance with Armenia and managing its strategic relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Despite Armenia’s weakening position and Azerbaijan’s growing strength, bolstered by Turkish support, Russia opted for diplomatic engagement over military intervention. This decision is analyzed through Putin’s leadership style, categorized as incremental by Leadership Trait Analysis, which emphasizes cautious, steady progress and risk-averse strategies. The study argues that Russia’s approach aimed to preserve regional stability, counter Turkey’s rising influence, and adhere to its alliance while avoiding broader conflict escalation. The thesis contributes to the academic discourse by integrating neoclassical realism with balance of power theory, proposing a more comprehensive framework for understanding foreign policy. It underscores the importance of considering both external pressures and internal political dynamics in state decision-making. The findings suggest that while balance of power theory provides insights into systemic influences, neoclassical realism offers a valuable perspective on the role of leadership and domestic factors.

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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen