Brazilian elections and the rise of Bolsonaro
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2020-06-26
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en
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Abstract
In this thesis, I set out to identify and statistically test the core explanatory factors
behind Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 election as president of Brazil. Based on various
sources on the supply of ideas and stances from Bolsonaro’s campaign, combined
with articles on common sentiments among Brazilian voters and literature on the
impact of different factors on vote choice, I outline four different hypotheses. Using
the LAPOP 2018/2019 dataset, I develop two different models that allow me to fully
test the effects of pro-army sentiments, anti-democratic sentiments, aversion against
political corruption, and support for Bolsonaro’s tough stances on crime through
multivariate binary logistic regression. The results indicate that only the first
hypothesis concerning pro-army sentiments can be proven. These findings lead me
to conclude that the current discourse on the roots of Bolsonaro’s electoral success
ought to be reexamined.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen