Modelling Endogenized Human Behavior: A System Dynamics Based Integration of Pro-Environmental Intention in Integrated Assessment Modelling
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2024-07-12
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en
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Abstract
There is an ongoing effort to answer the need for a dynamic representation of human behavior
that can extend and endogenize existing human behavioral components in integrated assessment
models (IAMs). This is not only a plea for representativeness, but also for accuracy: Because behavior
and intention develop over time and in relation to feedback from the environment, other
actors, or systems. A dynamic integration further allows for investigating simulation-based longterm
developments – a critical step to identify high-leverage intervention in these systems. To
better understand the representation of dynamical change of intention towards and of pro-environmental
behavior in models, this thesis grounds its generic model in insights from behavioral
concepts and theories and couples it with IAMs and the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways.
First, I draw on the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Value Belief Norm Theory and the
Protection Motivation Theory to ground the conceptualization. I identify (1) social norms through
peers and society, (2) personal worldviews and value sets, corresponding perceptions of threat, risk
and awareness of consequences and 3) personal norms, attitude or moral obligation as important
for change in intention 4) perceptions about behavioral control and self-efficacy as the critical
concepts to be integrated in a more holistic representation.
Second, I construct a generic system dynamics model, anchored in the change of proenvironmental
concern observed in the OECD, coupled with IAMs and input the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSP). I identify two main routes for human behavior representation: Feedback
from within and feedback from with-out. Social injunctive norm and Peer-Group pressure/
inspiration drives intention internally. The environment induces feedback through severeness
and seriousness based on our perceptions on the current states.
Lastly, model-based implications are discussed. I identify energy efficiency on the technological
side, media efficiency and instructive reference conditions on the social side as promising leverage points
for intervention. Additionally, education, thought leaders or campaigns can be used to re-evaluate or
activate a broad spectrum of values for awareness and societal sparked inspiration. Furthermore,
implications for IAMs and SSPs identify endogenized behavior as a focal point for uncovering,
discussing and testing assumptions and raising issue of representational dimensionality, continuity
of values in models and narratives.
This thesis builds upon work by WorldTrans Team and contributes to their ongoing effort
by further elaborating, refining operationalizing the current conceptualization of human behavior
integration through a high-level conceptual model.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen