How Turkish-Syrian freshwater policy influenced the Syrian civil war
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2021-08-15
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en
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The Malthus theorem about the causal relation between resource scarcity and armed conflict is well known, and to this day heavily contested within the scientific community. However, with human-caused climate change becoming ever more pressing, more attention is given to how resource scarcity might cause armed conflict. Especially freshwater availability and its role in armed conflict.
The Syrian Civil War has also been subjected to various studies which looked at the relation between freshwater scarcity within Syria, mainly caused by natural droughts, and how it might have caused the civil war in 2011. Many previous studies concluded water scarcity was mainly the result of failing Syrian government policy.
More recent research also highlighted the importance to look at outside-induced water scarcity by Turkey in Syria and how it relates to the triggering of the Syrian Civil War. This thesis aims to contribute to this previous research by looking at the causal mechanisms behind Turkish freshwater policy in the Euphrates, Tigris, and Orontes basins, and how this policy relates to Syria and the impact on the Syrian Civil War. This thesis concludes that freshwater scarcity on its own is not sufficient enough to explain why Turkey has decided to cut off freshwater to Syria in the Euphrates-Tigris basins. Historical factors and issue-linkage with non-water issues are at the core of Turkish and Syrian water policies.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen