Can cognitive biases in risk assesment be improved with a singel training intervention?
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2022-08-31
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en
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The assessment of high-impact and low-probability risks poses a major challenge to risk analysts. If their assessments are subjected to biases, such as the bias blind spot or confirmation bias, this can lead to major complications for policy. Therefore, we examine the efficacy of a (single) training as a debiasing intervention to improve judgment and decision-making. Based on previous studies conducted by Scopelliti (2015), Morewedge (2015) and Yoon (2021) we designed a training as a debiasing intervention for students targeting the bias blind spot and confirmation bias. The effect was measured by the completion of a pretest, followed by the training after which participants immediately completed the posttest. We found the debiasing training intervention to be effective in reducing the cognitive biases in judgment for high-impact and low-probability risks.
Keywords: high-impact and low-probability risks, bias blind spot, confirmation bias, debiasing interventions
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen