A Participative Decision-Making Approach for Deep Uncertain Future
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2022-07-13
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en
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For organisations to be prepared for the deep uncertain future with a dynamic robust strategy, a new participatory decision-making approach is necessary. The already existing methods are, among others, Scenario Planning, Assumption-Based Planning (ABP), Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Most data that is in the heads of the internal stakeholders of an organisation which means they should be involved. This can be done when ABP is combined with Group Model Building (GMB).
The steps of ABP are implemented in two GMB sessions and a new strategy is modelled in a causal loop diagram. The combination creates multiple Shaping and Hedging Actions to take if an alternative future occurs. The discussions during the GMB sessions create an alignment of mental models and consensus about the actions developed. The causal loop diagram can be used as a communication tool to other internal stakeholders.
The comprehension of the steps by the participants needs to be monitored carefully to reach the desired outcome. Participants from outside of the organisation need to be involved to cancel out the group bias that exists in an organisation. Multiple scenarios need to be discussed during the sessions to reach a dynamic robust strategy.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen