Resolution and Ruin: Comparatively diverging Peace Negotiation Outcomes in Colombia and Sri Lanka
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2024-07-10
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en
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This thesis is interested in analysing the diverging outcomes of the Colombian Peace Process with the FARC and the Sri Lankan Peace process with the LTTE. Both conflicts experienced peace processes in relatively similar circumstances, in a post-9/11 global context. Yet, both experienced vastly different outcomes: Colombia achieving a negotiated outcome, whereas Sri Lanka reached a military outcome. The research was also interested in the difference in outcome in terms of the quality of peace: The military outcome in Sri Lanka leading to negative peace, and the negotiated outcome in Colombia leading to positive peace. Goal of this thesis is to identify critical variables that help establish positive peace in peace processes elsewhere. By using a paired comparison analysis, the study identifies 5 variables that are critical in explaining why these negotiation processes diverged: These are; (1) negotiation setup; (2) liberal institutions and government spoilers; (3) rebel fragmentation (4) information uncertainty; (5) international context of the conflict. The research additionally concludes that, while there is still a long way to go to real peace, the quality of peace in Colombia is preferable to that in Sri Lanka.
Keywords: Peace
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen