Crowd Safety at Dutch Festivals: Mapping Experts’ Mental Models in the Execution Phase

Abstract

The increasing number and scale of music festivals in the Netherlands make effective crowd safety even more important. While technological tools can support monitoring and decision-making within the crowd management context, these processes remain human-centric and rely heavily on expert intuition. This research focuses on the mental models of crowd safety coordinators and security personnel at large-scale Dutch music festivals, examining the elements and relationships they perceive as essential for crowd safety. Using a qualitative, interview-based approach with vignettes, individual causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed, reviewed with participants, integrated into a final model, and validated once more. The results show a combined mental model with four interconnected segments: (1) organizational resilience and internal communication, (2) information gathering and interpreting, (3) crowd communication and acceptance of measures, and (4) manageability and risks. The final model contains both elements already covered in literature, as well as new ones, such as performer management and utilization of visitor self-reliance. Yet, the main contribution to the academic field lies in the visualization of the perceived interconnections between the elements in the crowd safety context, offering a practical tool for reflection, training, and enhancing decision-making in crowd management.