The causal impact of Germany’s 2011 accelerated nuclear phase-out policy on EBIT performance of publicly listed German energy firms
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2025-07-08
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en
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This study investigates the causal impact of Germany’s 2011 accelerated nuclear phase-out on the earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of German publicly listed energy firms in the fossil fuel and renewable energy sector. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), the study compares the actual EBIT trajectory of German energy firms to its counterfactual, constructed from France and the United Kingdom. The SCM analyses were performed over the period 2002-2018, with 2011 chosen as treatment year, on both the combined energy sector and on the fossil fuel sector separately. Robustness checks include in-space placebo tests and an alternative treatment year, 2010.
Across all models, the results show no significant causal effect of the policy on firm-level EBIT between Germany and the counterfactual. The initial SCM results show a possible decline, however the robustness checks show that neither the combined sector nor the fossil fuel sector exhibit a significant post-treatment effect attributable to the nuclear phase-out.
The findings implicate that the policy did not provide a significant causal impact on firm-level operational performance in this period. These findings contribute to literature on energy transition policies and demonstrate that macro-level effects not always translate into observable firm-level financial impacts.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen