The Legitimacy of Multilateral Cartel Agreements for Critical Raw Materials

Abstract

Critical raw materials1 such as cobalt, copper and lithium form the foundation of almost every global value chain (European Commission, 2020). They are essential for many of the products we use every day: smartphones, cars, solar panels, and even medical equi pment (Raju, 2020). Importantly, these materials play a crucial role in the energy transition and are a key resource to enable digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI; FP Analytics, 2025). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global demand for these materials could increase drastically by 2040 by as much as 40% for copper and 90% for lithium (IEA, 2021). If countries are unable to secure these materials, they will not be able to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, nor will they manage to digitalise their and economies. As a result, many countries would remain locked in poverty, while only few would be able to compete globally (World Bank, 2025).