Electoral fairness through the eyes of the losers: A cross-sectional analysis on how populist voting and electoral system (dis)proportionality shape perceptions after defeat

Abstract

As democracies worldwide are seeing a decline in free and fair elections and political officials openly question the fairness of elections after electoral defeat (V-dem, 2025; Assistance, 2024), understanding whether losing shapes voters perceptions of electoral fairness becomes essential. Drawing on the winner-loser framework (Anderson & Guillory, 1997), conceptualizations of populism (Mudde, 2004) and the proportionality of electoral systems (Gallagher, 1991), this study develops three research questions. First, are losers of elections more likely than winners to question electoral fairness? Second, does voting for a populist party strengthen the relationship between losing and perceived fairness? Third, does the proportionality of an electoral system moderate that same relationship? Using data from the Comparative Study of Election Studies (CSES, 2026), the results revealed that the effects of losing on perceptions of electoral fairness differ across two conceptualizations of losing. Governmental losers, i.e., those who voted for an opposition party, report more negative perceptions of electoral fairness, while this was not the case for electoral losers, i.e., those whose party lost seats. Moreover, no evidence was found that populist voting moderates the effect of losing on perceptions of electoral fairness. Finally, limited evidence suggested that system disproportionality strengthens the negative effect of electoral losing on perceived fairness, but it did not moderate the effect of governmental losing. These findings offer new insights into how different winner-loser statuses shape victory and defeat, emphasizing the importance of different electoral aspects in shaping perceptions of electoral fairness.