Pandemic shock or structural shift? COVID-19 and the spatial distribution of EU apparel imports

Abstract

This study examines whether the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with changes in the spatial distribution of European Union apparel imports. While the pandemic disrupted global trade and intensified debates on supply chain resilience, it remains unclear whether these disruptions led to lasting changes in sourcing patterns. Drawing on the International Business and Global Value Chain perspectives, the study investigates whether EU apparel sourcing shifted, persisted or regionalised following the shock. The analysis uses exporter-level trade data from UN Comtrade (2014–2025). A fixed-effects event-study model is used to track changes in import shares before and after the COVID-19 shock. The results show that import shares remained largely stable throughout the period. After adding macroeconomic controls, some post-pandemic effects emerge, but they are small in magnitude and do not hold consistently across all robustness checks. This study found no evidence for regionalisation towards geographically proximate suppliers. The findings suggest that the International Business and Global Value Chain perspectives may be better understood as describing different time horizons of adjustment. While Global Value Chain persistence appears to dominate in the years immediately following the pandemic, broader reallocation of sourcing patterns may require a longer period to become visible.