Trust and Troops: Examining the Impact of Recruitment Methods and Geopolitical Unrest on Public Trust in the Dutch Military
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2025-06-13
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en
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Abstract
During Pax Europaea, many European countries transitioned their military recruitment method from
conscription to an All-Volunteer Force (AVF). With the end of Pax Europaea, a prominent question in
the Netherlands is whether conscription should be reinstated. The Netherlands officially has
conscription; however, there is no compulsory service, meaning that those who receive a conscription
letter are not obligated to join the military against their wishes. Nevertheless, this current shift towards
conscription raises various concerns. Previously, it was found that an AVF army often enjoys a
significant amount of trust within society, as it is perceived as more professional. With the
reconsideration of conscription, there might be a shift in this public trust. Interestingly, the
Eurobarometer indicates an increase in trust in the military in the Netherlands in 2024.
In the current research, we investigate whether and to what extent three variables—
geopolitical unrest, current recruitment methods, and the adoption of new recruitment methods—can
explain the increasing trust in the Dutch military. To do this, we analysed 94 newspaper articles from
either De Volkskrant, De Telegraaf, or Algemeen Dagblad that mentioned ‘dienstplicht’ (conscription)
using thematic discourse analysis and contribution analysis. Our findings revealed that the
contribution of recruitment methods was smaller than anticipated regarding changes in trust in the
military, as was the contribution of switching recruitment methods. Geopolitical unrest appeared to
exert the largest influence on rising trust in the military. However, this research found insufficient
evidence to make any claims of causality.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen