The effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on host countries

dc.contributor.advisorWang, Xue
dc.contributor.authorDam, Dirk van
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the economic effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for 72 countries over the period 2002-2019. The main topic of the paper investigates whether BRI host countries benefit from improved infrastructure. This is analyzed using a random effects model. In this model, infrastructure is measured by an index that is constructed using a Principal Component Analysis. The econometric analysis shows that infrastructure is strongly correlated with GDP per capita. Furthermore, this baseline analysis is augmented with a Two-step System GMM estimation. The GMM estimation reveals that there is a causal effect going from infrastructure to GDP per capita. In addition to this main topic, five sub-topics are investigated. Two sub-topics consider the mediating effects of exports and productivity. No robust evidence is found that these factors mediate the relationship between infrastructure and GDP per capita. Another sub-topic considers whether debt distress inhibits positive effects of infrastructure. This also does not appear to be the case. The final two sub-topics look at the confounding effects of time and development. It is found that infrastructure investments have a long-lasting effect on economic performance, and the effect of infrastructure is less pronounced in developed countries compared to developing countries.en_US
dc.thesis.facultyFaculteit der Managementwetenschappenen_US
dc.thesis.specialisationFinancial Economicsen_US
dc.thesis.studyprogrammeMaster Economicsen_US
dc.titleThe effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on host countriesen_US
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