FOOD SECURITY IN EUROPE A quantitative system dynamics comparison of the crop security in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands
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2025-07-08
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en
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Global crop failure is forming an increased threat for the food security, even in developed countries such as the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. To research how global crop failure can affect these countries the following question was asked: ‘What is the effect of global crop failure on the food security in the Netherlands (a crop-exporting country) and the United Kingdom (a crop-importing country) within a quantitative modelling framework?’ In order to answer this question a quantitative and deductive approach was used to create a stock and flow model representing the two countries. This model was used to visualize different scenarios of global crop failure. In this thesis, being crop secure means that a country can provide 400 grams of crops per day per person. The results show that the Netherlands remains crop secure till 30% global crop failure. However, the United Kingdom is structurally vulnerable, and even currently, they are not able to provide the 400 gram crops per day per person. This is due to their limited domestic crop production and their dependence on crop import. The conclusion is that national food security is just as dependent on national resilience as it is to global circumstances.
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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen