Scrolling towards discontent: How political social media use drives challenger and populist party voting through relative deprivation and political trust

Abstract

The rise of challenger and populist parties is one of the most widely discussed developments in comparative politics. This study explains the well-known but under-researched link between political social media use and voting for these types of parties. Based on the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 2023 and using a path analysis within the SEM framework, the study examines the extent to which relative deprivation and political trust mediate this process. The results show that political social media use is associated with a higher degree of relative deprivation, which undermines political trust and thus increases the likelihood of voting for a challenger or populist party. In the full model, the direct effect of political social media use on voting for a challenger or populist party disappears entirely, pointing to serial mediation via relative deprivation and political trust. It is notable that these effects are stronger among older respondents. This runs counter to the dominant view in the literature, which concludes that it is young people who are most susceptible to the political effects of social media