Acts of Patriotism or Empty Promises? Assessing the impact of military coups d’état on jihadist attacks in the central Sahelian states of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso

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2024-07-04

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en

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Since 2012 the Sahelian states of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have been involved in an epidemic of coups. These coups are motivated by the insecurity that is caused by the severe amount of jihadist attacks in the region. Through an analysis of the jihadist attacks three months prior and after the military coup d’état, this research dives into the relationship between these two variables and finds that the military coup d’état does not have any effect on the amount of jihadist attacks. A coup forces the jihadist groups to alter their modus operandi from a direct form of attack, the armed assault, to indirect forms, merely the act of bombing and hostage taking. Due to the strengthening of the security forces the jihadist groups need to formulate an answer to their strengthened opposition and the indirect forms of attack provide a way to remain relevant. This research also finds that the military coup d’état predominantly decrease the military casualties, while a military coup d’état does not have any effect on the amount of civilian casualties.

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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen