The development of an adaptive business strategy for Transdev to implement people-movers in the Dutch city of Nijmegen.

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This research consists of the theoretical and practical application of dynamic adaptive planning to cope with decision making under deep uncertainty. Dynamic adaptive planning is applied from a business perspective and is projected on the implementation of an innovative mobility alternative. The alternative in question are people-movers, driverless shuttles that transport 8 to 20 people on demand and on a programmed road. The research first dives into what and why people-movers. People-movers have the potential to solve traffic effects in an innovative way when widely applied. The second part of this research explains what and why people-movers are surrounded by level 3 and 4 of uncertainties, deep uncertainties. The implementation of a disruptive technology into an existing system results is surrounded by uncertainties due to the lack of experience and knowledge to predict the future and its effects on the implementation. To cope with the uncertainties, research show that dynamic adaptive planning (DAP) is needed. The application of DAP is first explained and afterwards in two ways applied to the implementation of people-movers in the Dutch city of Nijmegen. To explain, DAP is used to cope with deep uncertainties by preparing an action guide for any possible changes in the future and therefore be able to swiftly adapt. The first application: the dynamic adaptive plan is filled in based on theory and articles, creating the literature-based DAP. The literature-based DAP shows that an implementation in Nijmegen is feasible when a fully separate bus lane is used free from crossings to step by step increase the coverage of the people-mover. The second application: interviews with experts and stakeholders were conducted to test the literature-based DAP and fill in the tailormade DAP. Semi-structured interviews were transcribed and coded to reveal relationships. The initial plan changed from direct implementation to a long-term incremental implementation plan. This results in a focus on reservations for the future, step-by-step increasing complexity and a higher focus on a positive return on investment. The results of the interviews show that mixed traffic operations are what stakeholders want but the people-mover cannot deliver yet.
Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen